本年の1月27日から2月1日にかけて、スイスの有名なスキーリゾート地であるダボスにおいて「世界経済フォーラム（通称：ダボス会議）」が開催され、私も招待を受け、日本政府を代表して出席してきました。 ダボス会議は、毎年世界各国のトップリーダーがスイスの田舎町ダボスに集まって、世界の大きな流れや今後のあるべき姿について非公式にじっくりと語り合う場ですが、非公式であるが故に当事者が本音の議論をする場になっており、「影のサミット」や「サミット・オブ・ザ・サミット」などとも呼ばれています。 今年は会議開催30周年を迎えて、政界からは、クリントン米国大統領、ブレア英国首相ら、経済界からは、ビル・ゲイツ マイクロソフト会長、スティーブ・ケース アメリカオンライン社長ら2000人程度が出席し、大変な賑わいを見せました。 今年の会議は「“
New beginnings：
making a difference”新しい始まり－変化に向けて」を全体のテーマとして、300以上のセッションに分かれて議論が行われました。全体的な傾向としては、IT革命やバイオテクノロジーの進歩の中での光と影の側面について多くの議論がなされました。 私がパネリストを務めたのは、“
The Collapse of Multilateralism”というセッションであり、
James F．
Hoge（
Foreign Affairs編集長）が司会を務め、私以外に次の人達が基調講演を行いました。・
Stanley O．
Roth（米国国務次官補）・
Guillermo Fernandez de Soto（コロンビア外相）
このセッションで私が行った講演は次のとおりです。
1.Importance of Multilateralism
Multilateralism currently stands at a key point in its transition
to a new stage of development. However, to negotiate the hurdles
and pitfalls which separate us from that new stage will require
an integrated effort by the entire international community. Why
should we make this effort? Because of the key role which multilateralism
will play in the 21st century, more so even than in
the century gone by. Multilateralism will be crucial for the
following reasons.Firstly,
the growing number of players taking the international stage
is inevitably deepening interdependence. Developing countries
are beginning to establish themselves firmly enough to be able
to participate actively in multilateral framewoks, while an international
consensus is also beginning to emerge as to the desirability
of linking these countries more strongly to the international
community, Multilateralism should continue to function as a framework
for international political and economic stabilization.Secondly,
a growing number of tasks are requiring global resolution. In
addition to issues such as free trade and currency stability,
the environment, human rights and other potentially contradictory
values now need to be simultaneously pursued. Such issues have
almost gone beyond the point where resolution is feasible through
the efforts of one country alone, with protection of the global
environment and a lengthening agenda of other issues needing
to be resolved at the multilateral lebel.
It must also be noted that
the forces underpinning multilateralism are changing, bringing
multilateralism closer to its true form. It can safely be said
that in the 50 years since the Second World War, the United States
has supported the majority of important multilateralism-based
fora. At the same time, with the end of the Cold War, U.S. commitment
to multilateralism has diminished, necessitating a greater sharing
of responsibilities among the U.S. and also the other major nations.
If multilateralism is essentially supported by the consensus
formed among nations of generally equal standing, the necessary
conditions are in fact currently falling into place.
2.A Turning Point for MultilateralismHowever,
these factors which are boosting the importance of a multilateral
approach are simultaneously also complicating the conditions
for keeping multilateralism on track.First
of all, amid concern over a possible diminishing of U.S. commitment,
an appropriate division of responsibilities among all major nations
has in reality yet to emerge. For example, the GATT system was
developed on the basis of U.S. support, with the Uruguay Round
leading to the establishment of the World Trade Organization
and the apparent achievement of the free trade ideal. However,
these developments were paralleled by the winding-down of the
Cold War and a reduction in U.S. commitment. A new system of
leadership has yet to take root. The establishment of the WTO,
the glittering peak of multilateralism in terms of free trade,
at the same time has presaged a crisis point for the multilateral
approach.Secondly,
the emergence and escalation of number of new issues in need
of global resolution, such as protection of the global environment,
urgently need to be coordinated with free trade, a value which
already has multilateral support. For example, how far are we
prepared to tolerate nations resorting to trade restrictions
as a means of protecting the global environment and labor standards?
No easy answer will be found to this question.Thirdly,
the growing number of players in the international community
is making multilateral decision-making increasingly complex.
Where 99 nations participated in the Tokyo Round, Which ended
in 1979, the WTO now has a register of 135 members. On top of
this, various new views are also emerging, such as those of environment-rated
NGOs, and seeking the chance to be heard. More than 800 NGOs
gathered for the Seattle Ministerial. When such civilian groups
seek to have their views directly reflected at the multilateral
level, previously a state only affair, the lack of rules governing
such a situation will inevitably make the coordination process
a rocky one.These
issues would seem to have emerged in concentrate at the Seattle
Ministerial.
3.Supporting 21st Century MulutilareralismWhere
should we look for new momentum for multilateralism? What are
the possibilities in teams of, for example, the WTO system, the
embodiment of mature multilateralism?Firstly,
from the perspective of those countries participating in multilateralism,
it will be essential to further clarify the division of responsibility
among major nations. Japan is ready to lead the drive toward
liberalization, as well as to contribute to strengthening support
for multilateralism through, for example, reform of the WTO’
s decision-making mechanisms, and assistance
for developing country independence.Secondly,
we need to communication with the non-state level, with the new
views which are emerging. As national borders become increasingly
vague, the state is losing its singularity in teams of supporting
multilateralism. Rather than taking an antagonistic view of multimational
corporations, which in some eases now wield more power than states
themselves, or the civilian groups gradually cohering through
the medium of the Internet, we should seek to organize these
forces in some productive form. The obvious first step would
be to seek smoother communication with these diverse “
non-states”
, aiming
to develop greater commonality in principles and values. Thirdly,
from a regional economic perspective, surely these are certain
issues which would flounder at the multilateral level but would
be much more feasible at regional level. Free trade areas and
other efforts should not be viewed as competing with the WTO,
but rather evaluated positively as complementing multilateralism.4.Long Live Multirateralism
Multilateralism,
as I noted earlier, is currently in a transitional phase. At
the same time, given the increasing number of takes requiring
global-scale resolution, I hardly need to restate the importance
to the international community of this approach. In terms of
immediate steps, we should seek to underpin multilateralism by
continuing with various experiments such as the creation of interfaces
among multilateral fora. Concrete examples of the latter include
the links between the WTO, the IMF and the World Bank which have
been designed to coordinate interests between the already-established
free system and the developing countries which are emerging on
the world stage, and dialogue between the WTO and the secretariats
of multilateral environment agreements toward mutual coordination
of trade and the environment.In
conclusion, the unexpected setbacks and loss of direction which
have buffeted multilateralism in the last years of the 20th century part of a transitional phase. We must maintain our focus
and take this opportunity to develop a shared awareness of the
importance of multilateralism to the international community,
reaffirming our strong commitment to this key approach in the
century ahead.